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| Metric | Value |
|---|
| US Import Rank | #16 |
| 2024 Import Value | $49 billion |
| % of US Imports | ~1.5% |
| 2024 Tariff Rate | 0-5% average |
| Current Tariff Rate | 50% (with agricultural exemptions) |
| Trade Agreement | November 2025 Agricultural Exemptions Deal |
| US Trade Balance | +$29.3 billion surplus |
Trade Overview
Bilateral Trade Volume
| Year | Total Trade | US Exports to Brazil | US Imports from Brazil | US Trade Balance |
|---|
| 2024 | $127.6 billion | $78.4 billion | $49 billion | +$29.3 billion surplus |
| 2023 | $113.7 billion | $68.1 billion | $45.6 billion | +$22.7 billion surplus |
Key Point: The US has maintained a trade surplus with Brazil every year since 2007, contrary to Trump administration claims of unfair trade practices.
Major Brazilian Exports to the US (2024)
Brazil supplied at least 20% of US imports for:
- Coffee (30% of all US coffee imports)
- Orange juice
- Cane sugar
- Iron ore
- Aluminum oxides and hydroxides
- Beef (23% of US beef imports)
- Pig iron
- Fuel ethanol
- Various tropical woods
2024 Baseline Tariff Structure
| Product Category | 2024 Tariff Rate | Notes |
|---|
| Coffee (green) | 0% | Duty-free under MFN |
| Orange juice | 4.5¢/liter | Low duty |
| Beef | 0-26.4% | Varies by cut |
| Sugar | Tariff Rate Quota system | Complex quota system |
| Aircraft/parts | 0% | Duty-free |
| Most manufactured goods | 0-5% | Generally low |
Section 232 Steel & Aluminum (2024 Status)
| Product | Original Rate | Brazil Status in 2024 |
|---|
| Steel | 25% | Exempt (quota agreement) |
| Aluminum | 10% | Exempt (quota agreement) |
2025 Tariff Changes
Timeline
Jan 20, 2025 Trump signs executive order directing tariff review
Feb 10, 2025 Section 232 steel/aluminum tariffs reinstated (25%)
Mar 12, 2025 Steel/aluminum tariffs take effect on Brazil
Apr 2, 2025 "Liberation Day" - 10% baseline tariff on Brazil
Jul 9, 2025 Trump announces 50% tariff via Truth Social
Jul 30, 2025 Executive Order 14323 - 40% additional tariff signed
Jul 31, 2025 ~700 exemptions announced
Aug 6, 2025 50% total tariff takes effect
Nov 13, 2025 Agricultural exemptions effective date
Nov 20, 2025 Executive order formalizing exemptions signed
Tariff Structure (August 2025)
| Tariff Layer | Rate | Authority | Notes |
|---|
| Baseline “Reciprocal” Tariff | 10% | IEEPA | Applied to nearly all countries |
| Brazil-Specific Additional Tariff | 40% | IEEPA/EO 14323 | Citing Bolsonaro prosecution |
| Section 232 (Steel) | 25% → 50% | Trade Expansion Act | Exemptions eliminated |
| Section 232 (Aluminum) | 25% | Trade Expansion Act | Exemptions eliminated |
| Total on Most Goods | 50% | Combined | Before exemptions |
July 2025 Exemptions (~700 products)
Energy & Industrial:
- Crude oil and petroleum products
- Natural gas
- Coal
- Fertilizers (NPK/blended)
- Wood pulp/cellulose
Transportation:
- Civil aircraft (protecting Embraer trade)
- Aeronautical components and parts
Metals (subject to Section 232 instead):
- Iron ore
- Aluminum
- Steel products
- Copper
Agricultural:
- Orange juice and pulp
- Brazil nuts
- Various nuts
Products NOT Exempted (Subject to 50% Tariff in August)
- Coffee (most significant impact)
- Beef
- Industrial goods
- Fishery products
- Manufactured goods
November 2025 Renegotiated Deal
Diplomatic Timeline
| Date | Event | Outcome |
|---|
| Sept 2025 | UN General Assembly meeting | Trump-Lula “warm” encounter |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Phone call | Agreed to begin formal negotiations |
| Oct 26, 2025 | ASEAN Summit (Malaysia) | In-person meeting; teams to work “immediately” |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Executive Order signed | Agricultural exemptions formalized |
Products Exempted from 40% Tariff (November 2025)
Retroactive to November 13, 2025:
| Category | Products |
|---|
| Beverages | Coffee, tea, coconut water |
| Tropical Fruits | Bananas, oranges, açaí, citrus juices |
| Foods | Cocoa, spices, tomatoes |
| Meat | Beef |
| Agricultural Inputs | Fertilizers |
Total: 238 tariff codes + 11 additional agricultural categories
Result of Negotiations
| Metric | Before Deal | After Deal |
|---|
| Brazilian exports facing tariffs | 36% of total | 22% of total |
| Coffee tariff | 50% | 0% (exempt) |
| Beef tariff | 50% | 10% (baseline only) |
| Major concessions by Brazil | N/A | None reported |
Current Tariff Structure (January 2026)
| Product Category | 2024 Rate | Current Rate | Notes |
|---|
| Coffee | 0% | 0% | Exempt from all tariffs (Nov 2025 deal) |
| Beef | 0-26% | 10% | Baseline reciprocal only |
| Orange juice | ~4.5¢/L | 10% | Baseline reciprocal only |
| Steel | 0% (exempt) | 50% | Section 232 exemption removed |
| Aluminum | 0% (exempt) | 25-50% | Section 232 exemption removed |
| Industrial goods | 0-5% | 50% | Full tariff remains |
| Aircraft/parts | 0% | 10% | Baseline only (July exemption) |
Important: The November 2025 deal ONLY covered agricultural products. Steel, aluminum, and industrial goods remain subject to full tariffs.
Economic Effects
Impact on Brazilian Exports
| Product | Pre-Tariff | Post-Tariff (Aug-Oct 2025) | Change |
|---|
| Coffee | Baseline | Down 80%+ | -46% YoY |
| Beef | 48,000 tons (April) | 18,000 tons (June) | -62% |
| Overall imports | Trend line | Significant deviation | Major decline |
US Coffee Market Impact
| Metric | Before Tariffs | After Tariffs | Change |
|---|
| US ranking as Brazil buyer | #1 | #2 (Germany now #1) | Lost top spot |
| Roasted coffee prices | $7.10/lb (Jan 2025) | $8.13/lb (June 2025) | +12.7% |
| Instant coffee prices | Baseline | +16.3% YoY | Significant increase |
| Restaurant coffee | $3.42 avg | $3.52 avg | +10¢ |
Trade Flow Shifts
- Brazilian coffee exports to Colombia surged 578% (August 2025 YoY)
- China authorized 183 Brazilian coffee exporters the same week US tariffs took effect
- US export market share in Brazil declined 5.3% (Oct 2025 vs Oct 2024)
- China’s market share in Brazil rose 5.2% over same period
Broader Economic Impact
Brazil:
- Estimated loss of 100,000+ jobs (CEDEPLAR/UFMG study)
- Projected 0.16% GDP decline
- 2.44% drop in total exports
United States:
- Higher consumer prices on coffee, beef, and other goods
- Inflation pressures from tariff policy
Key Products Deep Dives
Coffee
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Brazil’s share of US imports | ~33% |
| 2024 US imports from Brazil | 7.6 million bags |
| August 2025 tariff | 50% |
| November 2025 tariff | 0% (exempted) |
| Instant coffee | Still 50% |
Steel
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Brazil’s US steel export rank | #2 (behind Canada) |
| 2024 exports to US | ~4.1 million tons |
| Brazil’s role | #1 in semi-finished steel (slabs) |
| 2024 tariff | 0% (quota exemption) |
| 2025 tariff | 50% |
| November deal | NOT included |
Significant Events
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|
| Oct 2022 | Lula defeats Bolsonaro | Sets stage for tensions |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Bolsonaro supporters storm government | Criminal investigations begin |
| Jul 9, 2025 | Trump cites Bolsonaro “witch hunt” | Justification for 50% tariff |
| Aug 2025 | Bolsonaro convicted (27 years) | Tensions escalate |
| Sept 2025 | Trump-Lula UNGA meeting | Unexpected warmth |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Agricultural exemptions | Partial relief |
Current Status (January 2026)
What’s in Effect
- Agricultural exports (coffee, beef, OJ): 0-10%
- Steel: 50%
- Aluminum: 25-50%
- Industrial goods: 50%
- Aircraft: 10%
Outstanding Issues
- Steel/aluminum remain at full tariffs
- Industrial goods at 50%
- Section 301 investigation ongoing
- WTO dispute pending
Outlook
Brazil secured important agricultural exemptions through the November 2025 deal, protecting coffee and beef exports. However, steel, aluminum, and industrial goods remain subject to 50% tariffs—a major setback for Brazil’s metal industry. The deal was notable for requiring no major Brazilian concessions, reflecting Lula’s negotiating position and the personal rapport with Trump at UNGA.
Sources