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Current Tariff: 15%

US-France Trade Analysis

Country
France
US Import Rank
#14
Import Value
$62 billion
Trade Agreement
EU-US Framework Agreement

Last Updated:

Quick Facts

MetricValue
US Import Rank#14
2024 Import Value~$62 billion
% of US Imports1.9%
2024 Tariff Rate~1% average
Current Tariff Rate15% (EU framework)
Trade AgreementEU-US Framework Agreement
US Trade Balance-$16.4 billion deficit

Trade Agreement

EU-US Framework Agreement

Status: France trades as EU member state

Key Terms:

  • 15% ceiling on most goods
  • Sector-specific exemptions
  • Same terms as Germany, Italy, Ireland

Note: France has no bilateral agreement with the US.

2024 Baseline Tariff Structure

Product Category2024 RateNotes
Most goods~1%Low EU MFN rates
WineLowPre-tariff
Cognac/spiritsLowPre-tariff
Aircraft (Airbus)LowKey sector
Luxury goodsLowMFN rates

2025 Tariff Changes

Timeline (Same as EU)

Apr 2, 2025     "Liberation Day" - 20% reciprocal tariff on EU
Apr 9, 2025     90-day pause, reduced to 10%
Jul 27, 2025    US-EU deal: 15% rate agreed
Aug 21, 2025    Framework agreement signed
Jan 2026        Greenland crisis: additional tariffs threatened
                Trump threatens 200% on French wine/champagne

Current Tariff Structure (January 2026)

Product CategoryCurrent RateNotes
General goods15%EU framework
Wine15% (25% threatened)NOT exempt
Cognac/spirits15%NOT exempt
Champagne15% (200% threatened)Greenland crisis
Aircraft/parts0%Exempt
Generic pharmaceuticals0%Exempt
Steel50%Section 232

Exemptions

Under EU Framework

ProductStatusTariff
Aircraft and partsExempt0%
Generic pharmaceuticalsExempt0%
Cork and natural resourcesExempt0%

NOT Exempt (Major French Exports)

ProductTariffStatus
Wine15%Under threat
Champagne15%200% threatened
Cognac15%Major exposure
Luxury goods15%Fashion, cosmetics

The Wine and Champagne Crisis

Trump’s 200% Threat (January 2026)

ContextDetail
TriggerGreenland acquisition push
Threat200% tariffs on French wine and champagne
TargetSpecifically France
StatusThreatened, not yet implemented

Previous Wine Tariff History

PeriodRateReason
2019-202125%Airbus subsidy dispute
2021-2025~0%Suspended
Apr 2025+15%EU framework
Jan 2026200% threatenedGreenland

Economic Effects

Projected Impact

MetricEstimate
2025 GDP growthRevised to 0.7% (from 0.9%)
Wine revenue decline€2.4 billion (~17% of export earnings)

Sector-Specific Exposure

SectorImpact
Wine€2.4B revenue loss
Aerospace€9B exports affected
Luxury goods€12.5B annual US exports

Key Products Affected

Wine (€8.2 billion market)

MetricDetail
Current tariff15% (25% threatened)
Revenue decline€2.4 billion
Share of export earnings~17%
Key regionsBordeaux, Burgundy, Champagne

Major Appellations:

  • Champagne
  • Bordeaux
  • Burgundy
  • Rhône Valley
  • Loire Valley

Cognac and Spirits

MetricDetail
Current tariff15%
US market importanceMajor destination
Key producersHennessy, Rémy Martin, Courvoisier

Luxury Goods (€12.5 billion annual US exports)

CategoryMajor Brands
FashionLVMH, Kering, Hermès
CosmeticsL’Oréal, Chanel
JewelryCartier
LeatherLouis Vuitton, Hermès

LVMH Exposure: US represents 27% of sales

Aircraft/Airbus (25% of French exports to US)

StatusDetail
Tariff0% (exempt)
Airbus share of US marketSignificant
ImportanceLargest protected sector

Historical Context: The Airbus-Boeing subsidy dispute previously triggered US tariffs on European goods; aerospace exemption resolves this.

France’s Response

EU Anti-Coercion Instrument

ToolDetail
PurposeCounter economic coercion
AdvocateMacron pushing EU to activate
TargetRespond to Greenland-related threats

Domestic Position

StanceDetail
Wine sectorVocal opposition to tariffs
GovernmentSeeking EU collective response
RetaliationSupports EU countermeasures

Greenland Crisis Impact (January 2026)

Background

Trump’s push to acquire Greenland (Danish territory) triggered EU tensions.

France-Specific Threats

ThreatDetail
Additional tariffsAmong 8 EU countries targeted
Wine/champagne200% threatened
Framework statusImplementation suspended

French Government Response

ActionDetail
Macron statementStrong opposition
EU coordinationPushing collective response
Anti-CoercionAdvocating activation

Digital Services Tax Consideration

France’s DST

MetricDetail
Rate3% on digital revenue
TargetsUS tech giants
US positionDemands removal

Unlike the UK (where DST caused Tech Deal suspension), France’s DST has not been a primary focus—overshadowed by wine/Greenland issues.

Significant Events

DateEventImpact
2019-202125% wine tariffsAirbus dispute
2021Tariffs suspendedRelief
Apr 2, 2025EU tariffs announced20% on France
Apr 9, 202590-day pauseRelief at 10%
Jul 27, 2025EU deal15% agreed
Jan 2026Greenland crisis200% wine threat

Current Status (January 2026)

What’s in Effect

  • 15% tariff on most goods (EU framework)
  • 0% on aircraft and generic pharma
  • 50% on steel/aluminum

Major Exposures

  • Wine at 15% (200% threatened)
  • Champagne at 15% (200% threatened)
  • Cognac at 15%
  • Luxury goods at 15%

Outstanding Issues

  • Greenland crisis threatens severe escalation
  • 200% wine/champagne tariff possibility
  • EU Anti-Coercion activation debate
  • Framework agreement uncertain

Outlook

France faces significant uncertainty due to the Greenland crisis. While the EU framework provides a 15% ceiling, Trump’s specific threats of 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne could severely impact iconic export sectors. The aerospace exemption protects Airbus, but wine, cognac, and luxury goods remain exposed. France is pushing for a collective EU response through the Anti-Coercion Instrument.

Sources